NASCAR Nationwide Series: New Hampshire Picks and Points

by Adam Ansell, RotoExperts.com on June 25, 2010 @ 14:07:00 PDT

 


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ADAM ANSELL'S TOP 25 FOR NEW HAMPSHIRE

1. Kyle Busch: With the "stand-alone" portion of the Nationwide Series schedule behind us, Busch relieves Brad Coleman after a three-race hiatus. In four starts at New Hampshire Motor Speedway, Busch has one win and two Top Fives. He's never qualified lower than 10th, starting from an Average Position of sixth. In his 2009 victory at the site, Busch posted a 129.5 Driver Rating, 4.9 Average Running Position, 37 Laps Led, and spent 100 percent of his Laps in the Top 15. Since the inception of Loop Data in 2005, Busch owns a DR of 121.5 (fourth) and an ARP of 5.1 (sixth). He ranks fourth in Laps Led (115) and Fastest Laps Run (91). Busch returns sporting a two-race win streak (Dover, Charlotte). He's also put up eight Top Fives in his last nine starts. He'll pick up right where he left off, taking his sixth Checkered Flag of 2010.

2. Kevin Harvick: Harvick has finished outside the Top 10 in one of his 12 starts this season, posting a DR of 100 or better in all but two races. He also owns an incredible season ARP of 6.9. He holds the Nationwide Series records for most poles (three) and most Top Fives (seven) at NHMS, and has one win ('07) and eight Top 10s in nine starts at the site. Harvick ranks second in DR (126.5), ARP (3.7), Fastest Laps Run (126) and Fastest Green Flag Speed (125.938 mph). He leads all drivers in Laps Led (256) and Laps in the Top 15 (99.9 percent) at the site. NHMS has housed 23 different winners in its last 23 races, and Harvick is the next best bet other than Busch to snap that trend.

3. Brad Keselowski: The Nationwide Series points leader is the top candidate to keep the "different winners" streak going to 24 races. In 15 starts this season, Keselowski has finished outside the Top 10 once. In two starts at NHMS, he has one Top Five and two Top 10s with an Average Finish of 6.5. Keselowski ranks 12th in DR (97.2) and ARP (9.7), and 13th in Laps in the Top 15 (363) and Fastest Green Flag Speed (124.142 mph). In his third-place performance a year ago, he ran all 200 Laps in the Top 15. He's a lock for a Top Five finish.

4. Carl Edwards: He finally captured his first win of 2010 at the inaugural race at Road America last week. Edwards is known for putting up big second-half numbers, and if he's going to catch Keselowski in the standings, he'll need some of the same magic. In his final 20 starts of the '08 season, Edwards posted seven wins, 13 Top Fives and 15 Top 10s. It was more of the same in '09, with four wins, 13 Tops Fives and 19 Top 10s in the final 20 races. He finished second in the final standings both times. In five starts at NHMS, Edwards has never finished outside the Top 10, with one win ('06), four Top Fives and five Top 10s. He's posted a 116.5 DR (sixth), 5.6 ARP (seventh), 118 Laps Led (third), 104 Fastest Laps Run (third) and 974 Laps in the Top 15 (second).

5. Joey Logano: He's two weeks removed from a dominating performance at Kentucky, in which he started from the pole and posted a 148.9 DR, 1.7 ARP and 106 Laps Led. In his last five Nationwide Series starts, he's notched an Average Finish of 2.8. In his lone start at NHMS, Logano started from the pole, finished second and posted a 141.6 DR (first), 1.5 ARP (first), 125.239 Fastest Green Flag Speed (first), 108 Laps Led (fifth) and 51 Fastest Laps Run (sixth). Logano is from the New England area, and performs very well in front of the hometown crowd.

6. Justin Allgaier: Don't be alarmed by the 35th place finish at Road America. Allgaier's six-race slump that saw him post an Average Finish of 14.5 and zero Top 10s is over. Discounting Road America, he's crafted an Average Finish of 5.3 over his last three starts. In his lone start at NHMS, Allgaier finished 13th, posting an 85.1 DR (21st), 14.5 ARP (20th), three Fastest Laps Run (t-19th) and 10 Quality Passes (t-15th). Allgaier will show that Top 10 form this week at NHMS.

7. Mike Bliss: Bliss failed to meet the lofty expectations that came with helming Harvick's No. 33 ride. Despite leading his first laps (13) of the season two weeks ago, he posted an Average Finish of 27.5 at Kentucky and Road America. In five starts at NHMS, Bliss has one Top Five and two Top 10s, with an Average Finish of 8.3 in his last three starts. He owns a 95.3 DR (13th), 10.6 ARP (14th), and has spent 89.8 percent of his Laps in the Top 15 (eighth). He is sixth in Average Quality Passes (15.7). He'll right the ship this week.

8. Paul Menard: Menard took advantage of the stand-alone portion of the schedule, moving up to fifth in the Nationwide Series standings. He posted a 35th place DNF at last year's event at NHMS, but in his prior two starts at the site (2005-'06), he posted a 5.5 Average Finish and 97.3 DR. He also has one Top Five and two Top 10s in four starts at the site. Expect him to get back the '05 and '06 form that saw him run at an ARP of 9.8.

9. Jason Leffler: Leffler overcame three pit road speeding penalties and a 20.9 ARP last week at Road America to capture his fifth Top 10 of the season (eighth). He also led his first laps (three) of 2010 last week. In seven starts at the site, Leffler has one Top Five and two Top 10s. In his '09 10th place finish, he posted a 97.7 DR and 7.8 ARP while running all 200 Laps in the Top 15. Since '05, he's posted an 82.2 DR (23rd) and a 16.9 ARP (24th). A Top 10 finish is Leffler's ceiling at NHMS.

10. Reed Sorenson: In his last five starts this season, Sorenson has two Top Fives and five Top 10s with an Average Finish of 6.4. He's also posted 64 Laps Led in that span. Sorenson will make his first start at NHMS since '07, where he has just one Top 10 in three tries. The stats don't offer much either, as he ranks 15th in DR (91.9) and ARP (12.7). The recent hot streak overrides past failures. He'll be a solid choice at NHMS.

11. Brendan Gaughan: Has posted back-to-back Top Fives (Kentucky and Road America) for the first time in his career. 64.1 DR.

12. Steve Wallace: One Top Five and three Top 10s in his last three Series starts. 76.3 DR.

13. Michael McDowell: Finished 15th in his lone start at the site. 80.4 DR.

14. Joe Nemechek: One win, two Top Fives, four Top 10s and 219 Laps Led in 12 starts at NHMS. 58.2 DR.

15. Michael Annett: Finished 19th in his lone NHMS start, with one Lap Led. 51.7 DR.

16. Jason Keller: 73.5 DR.

17. David Gilliland: 72.3.

18. Tony Raines: 50.5.

19. Brian Scott: N/A.

20. Kenny Wallace: 67.9.

21. Danica Patrick

22. Tayler Malsam

23. Eric McClure

24. Trevor Bayne

25. Colin Braun

Wanna talk some track? E-mail Adam at ansell@rotoexperts.com. The RotoRacing Show is back! Get up to speed on everything Fantasy NASCAR, Tuesday nights at 9PM!

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About Adam Ansell, RotoExperts.com

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