NASCAR Nationwide Series: Texas Picks and Points

by Adam Ansell, RotoExperts.com on November 4, 2010 @ 17:00:00 PDT

 


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ADAM ANSELL'S TOP 25 FOR TEXAS

1. Kyle Busch: In 11 starts at Texas Motor Speedway, Busch has five wins, nine Top Fives, 10 Top 10s and two poles. He's won the last five events at Texas, leading an obscene 810 of 1,000 laps run in that span. Since the inception of Loop Data in 2005, Busch leads all competitors in Driver Rating (125.9) and ranks third in Average Running Position (6.4). In his most recent domination at the site back in April, Busch started third on the grid and posted a perfect 150.0 DR and 1.6 ARP. He's locked into the third position in the Series standings. Had he run a full slate of races, instead of sitting out of six, he would be cruising to a second straight championship. Busch will increase his Series record 13 wins with a sixth consecutive victory this weekend. He's more of a lock than usual and needs to be started in all formats.

2. Kevin Harvick: In 12 starts at the site, Harvick has four wins, five Top Fives, nine Top 10s and one pole. He's the last driver to take the Checkered Flag at Texas before Busch's reign of dominance started in April 2008. He ranks third in DR (114.9) and sixth in ARP (8.1). Harvick hasn't finished outside the Top 10 in any race since late July, collecting one win, seven Top 10s and nine Top 10s in the process. He's led at least two laps in six of those nine events and has started inside the Top Three on the grid four times. His consistency and ability to excel makes him an outstanding start in Tiered/Grouping formats for Fantasy owners low on Busch starts.

3. Joey Logano: In four starts at the site, Logano has two Top Fives and one pole. He's led at least one lap in both of his Top Five finishes. Logano is a qualifying master this season with six poles, 11 starts inside the Top Four and an Average Start of fifth. He's led at least one lap in 16 of his 22 Series starts this season. Basically, he's a lock for bonus points on all fronts. Logano has a ton of upside and might be undervalued in Tiered/Grouping formats because of his part-time status. Fantasy owners looking to avoid starting Busch for whatever reason need to heavily consider rolling Logano.

4. Brad Keselowski: In eight starts at the site, Keselowski has three Top Fives and five Top 10s. He's won the last two Series events (Charlotte, Gateway) and has an Average Finish of 1.5 in his last four starts. He ranks 20th in DR (84.1) and 25th in ARP (16.2). Keselowski comes to Texas with a 485 point lead in the standings, and can clinch the Series championship this weekend if the following happens: finish 21st or better; finish 22nd and lead at least one lap; finish 24th and lead the most laps. Keselowski's worst finish of the season is 21st at Chicagoland and he led 27 laps in that event. Expect him to clinch one way or another at Texas.

5. Carl Edwards: In 11 starts at the site, Edwards has four Top Fives, six Top 10s and one pole. He ranks 10th in DR (97.4) and 11th in ARP (11.2). Texas is one of three cookie-cutter tracks (Atlanta, Charlotte). Since all are similar, the rule of thumb is drivers good at one are good at all. Edwards finished 30th in the April event at Texas, but finished ninth at Charlotte and third at Atlanta, an indication he'll be just fine this weekend. Though he'll finish second in the Series standings for a third consecutive season, he's not done helping Fantasy owners finish the year strong. He'll come at a high value in Tiered/Grouping formats.

6. David Reutimann: In eight starts at the site, Reutimann has four Top 10s with a streak of three straight at Texas. He ranks 13th in DR (94.7) and 10th in ARP (10.8). He hasn't led any laps since his Series debut at the site in 2003, but that will change this weekend, as Reutimann is excellent on 1.5-mile intermediate tracks. Texas will mark his fifth Series start this season, with two coming at the April event in Texas (eighth) and Charlotte (12th). He's an elite Elimination format driver, and will come in under the radar in Tiered/Grouping formats.

7. Reed Sorenson: In six starts at the site, Sorenson has three Top Fives. He finished third in the April event with a 109.4 DR and a 7.1 ARP. Overall, he ranks 21st in DR (83.7) and 33rd in ARP (18.1). Sorenson has been solid on intermediate tracks this season with an Average Finish of sixth and combined ARP of 9.2 at both Charlotte events and Texas. That figure excludes his 34th-place egg at Atlanta. He's a safe option in all formats.

8. Clint Bowyer: In nine starts at the site, Bowyer has two Top Fives and five Top 10s. He ranks 12th in DR (95.8) and 13th in ARP (11.5). Bowyer enters Texas coming off of his best performance of the season, coincidentally at Charlotte. He recorded a season highs in starting position (pole), finish (fifth), DR (123.1), Laps Led (29) and Fastest Laps Run (27). He has five Top 10s in his last six Series starts, and will tack on one more at Texas. He's a reliable option in all formats.

9. Justin Allgaier: In four starts at the site, Allgaier has one Top 10. He finished 11th in the April event. He ranks 26th in DR (80.3) and 22nd in ARP (15.8). Allgaier has been tremendous at the four intermediate tracks this season, racking up two Top Fives with an Average Finish of eighth. He's recorded five consecutive Top 10s and an Average Finish of sixth in his last five Series starts. Allgaier led a season-high 88 laps last week at Gateway. He's running as well as he has all year, and will keep his hot streak going at Texas.

10. Martin Truex Jr.: In three starts at the site, Truex has one Top 10. He'll make his first start at Texas since 2005. He's never started lower than 10th on the grid and has an Average Start of sixth. Truex ranks 14th in DR (94.5) and ninth in ARP (9.9). He's led at least one lap in each of his three Series starts this season, with an ARP of 7.5. His lowest DR of the season is 93.1 (Auto Club). Truex has been extremely consistent in limited action, and will be true to form at Texas.

11. Aric Almirola: One Top Five and three Top 10s in five Series starts this season. DR N/A.

12. Paul Menard: One Top Five and four Top 10s in eight starts at the site. 91.6 DR.

13. Trevor Bayne: Average Finish of 13.5 in two starts at the site. 83.2 DR.

14. Brian Scott: Finished 15th in his lone start at the site. 79.1 DR.

15. Jason Leffler: One Top Five and four Top 10s in 12 starts at the site. 81.3 DR.

16. Mike Bliss: 74.7 DR.

17. James Buescher: 76.9.

18. Brendan Gaughan: 68.9.

19. Steve Wallace: 68.1.

20. Michael McDowell: 64.7.

21. Danica Patrick

22. David Gilliland

23. Michael Annett

24. Ricky Carmichael

25. Tony Raines

Wanna talk some track? E-mail Adam at ansell@rotoexperts.com. Listen to RotoRacing and get up to speed on everything Fantasy NASCAR. Click here for upcoming show times.

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About Adam Ansell, RotoExperts.com

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RotoExperts.com is a deluxe fantasy analysis and information site and content development network. Led by award-winning Fantasy veteran Scott Engel, formerly of ESPN and CBS SportsLine, the RotoExperts.com team provides distinctive and in-depth fantasy insights in all sports. RotoExperts.com is an official content provider for NFL.com, Yahoo Sports, Sports Illustrated and USA Today. RotoExperts.com was nominated for a total of eight industry awards in 2009, and won the Fantasy Sports Writers Association Award for Best Humor Article. RotoExperts.com urges you to look for the X- The Mark of Fantasy Excellence.

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