NASCAR Nationwide Series: Homestead-Miami Picks and Points

by Adam Ansell, RotoExperts.com on November 18, 2010 @ 15:31:00 PDT

 


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1. Carl Edwards: In five starts at Homestead-Miami Speedway, Edwards has one win (2008), four Top Fives and one pole (2009). Heís led at least seven laps in his last four starts at Homestead-Miami. His Average Start at the site is 2.4, never outside the Top Four on the grid. Since the inception of Loop Data in 2005, Edwards ranks second in Driver Rating (114.7) and fourth in Average Running Position (6.6). Edwards posted his most impressive performance of the season last weekend at Phoenix International Raceway with a perfect 150.0 DR, 1.5 ARP and 153 laps led in his win. He has two wins and four Top Fives in his last five Series starts. Heís started inside the Top Three in his last two Series starts. He goes into the final race of the season with four wins, 19 Top Fives, 26 Top 10s and three poles having run a full slate of events.

2. Kyle Busch: In four starts at the site, Busch has one win (2009) and three Top Fives. Heís led at least 71 laps in each of his last two starts at Homestead-Miami. He ranks fourth in DR (111.5) and 13th in ARP (12.6). Buschís streak of 19 straight Series starts with a Top 10 finish was snapped last weekend at Phoenix (16th). With 12 wins, 21 Top Fives, 24 Top 10s, four poles and 15 starts inside the Top Four on the grid in 28 starts, Busch had arguably the best and most dominating Fantasy NASCAR season ever. Heíll finish the season third in the Series standings. No disrespect to Series champion Brad Keselowski, but Busch wouldíve run away with the Series title had he ran a full slate of races.  

3. Joey Logano: In two starts at the site, Logano has one Top Five, two Top 10s and one pole (2008). Heís led at least 13 laps in both starts. Heís never qualified outside the Top Four at the site. He ranks fifth in DR (109.8) and third in ARP (6.4). As usual, Logano has improved in each of his two starts at HMS, finishing 10th in 2008 and fourth in 2009. Logano logged two wins, 15 Top Fives, 23 Top 10s and seven poles in 24 starts this season. With just one finish outside the Top 10 this season, Logano has been the most dominant Fantasy part-timer this side of teammate Busch. If he runs full-time in the No. 20 car next season, heíll be a major threat to win the 2011 Series championship.

4. Brad Keselowski: In four starts at the site, Keselowski has one Top Five. Heís led at least two laps in two of his last three starts at Homestead-Miami. He ranks 18th in DR (83.8) and 25th in ARP (17.8). Keselowski will finally be awarded the Nationwide Series drivers championship this weekend at HMS. Heís been as consistent as he has been dominant this season, racking up six wins, 25 Top Fives, 28 Top 10s and five poles. The Ownerís Championship is the only title left to fight for, with Keselowski cutting JGRís lead of 81 points down to 41 last weekend. He has two wins and six Top Fives in his last six starts, and will end a special Fantasy season as hot as it began.

5. Kevin Harvick: In seven starts at the site, Harvick has one win (2004), two Top Fives, four Top 10s and one pole (2006). He leads all competitors in DR (117.4) and ARP (5.6). Harvick has been stellar in limited action this season, posting three wins, 16 Top Fives, 25 Top 10s and two poles in 28 starts. Heís led at least two laps in 15 of his 28 starts and hasnít finished outside the Top 10 in any event since July (Gateway). Harvick will finish the season sixth in the Series standings, a major accomplishment considering his part-time status.

6. Paul Menard: In four starts at the site, Menard has two Top Fives. He ranks seventh in DR (101.2) and sixth in APR (9.9). Menard led a lap in just three events this season and started inside the Top Four on the grid just twice, but it was his consistency that made him a Fantasy factor. Heís exceeded expectations this season with three Top Fives and 18 Top 10s, including three 11th-place finishes while running a full slate of events. Heíll close out the season fifth in the Series standings.

7. Martin Truex Jr.: In four starts at the site, Truex has one Top Five and three Top 10s. He ranks ninth in DR (97.8) and 12th in ARP (12.3). He hasnít appeared at the site since 2005, but performing well at tracks he hasnít seen in a while has been a recurring theme this season. In five 2010 Series starts he has three Top Fives, leading at least one lap in three of his four starts. Truex is the top Elimination format start of the week.

8. Justin Allgaier: In two starts at the site, Allgaierís Average Finish is 24th with zero Top 10s. He ranks 37th in DR (62.9) and 32nd in ARP (22.1). Allgaier will finish fourth in the Series standings, up two spots from his 2009 position. Heíll close out the season with one win, eight Top Fives and 20 Top 10s. He fought through a brutal mid-season slump, proving to Fantasy owners heís got the chops to be an every week, reliable Fantasy starter. His week-to-week value will dwindle next season now that heís a household name, but it wonít matter as long as heís cashing in Top 10s.

9. Kasey Kahne: In six starts at the site, Kahne has one win (2003) and two Top 10s. He ranks 20th in DR (81.5) and 23rd in ARP (17.5). Heíll make his first start at the site since 2007. Kahne has been less than impressive in seven Series starts this season with one Top Five, two Top 10s and one pole. The good news for Fantasy owners is that his lone Top Five (fourth) came at Darlington, a steep-banked track somewhat similar to Homestead-Miami. Heís worth an Elimination format start this weekend.

10. Trevor Bayne: Bayne will make his Homestead-Miami debut this weekend. In 34 starts this season, Bayne has five Top Fives, 10 Top 10s and three poles with five 11th-place finishes. He has an overall DR of 87.8 and ARP of 13.8 on the season. Though heís failed to finish inside the Top 10 in any event since September (Dover), he sits eighth in the Series standings, one point behind seventh (Logano). Heíll finish the season strong with a Top 10 performance and should be started in all Tiered/Grouping formats.

11. David Reutimann: One Top 10 (2009) in six starts at the site. 80.1 DR.
12. Aric Almirola: Finished 18th in his lone start at the site (2007). 78.3.
13. Brendan Gaughan: Finished 11th in his lone start at the site (2009). 84.0.
14. Steve Wallace: One Top 10 in (2009) in four starts at the site. 79.0.
15. Reed Sorenson: One Top Five (2004) in three starts at the site. 51.1 DR.
16. Jason Leffler: 80.2 DR.
17. Ricky Stenhouse Jr: DR N/A.
18. Brian Scott: DR N/A.
19. Mike Bliss: 78.4.
20. Sam Hornish Jr.: 37.2.
21. Danica Patrick
22. David Gilliland
23. Tony Raines
24. Eric McClure
25. Michael Annett

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About Adam Ansell, RotoExperts.com

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RotoExperts.com is a deluxe fantasy analysis and information site and content development network. Led by award-winning Fantasy veteran Scott Engel, formerly of ESPN and CBS SportsLine, the RotoExperts.com team provides distinctive and in-depth fantasy insights in all sports. RotoExperts.com is an official content provider for NFL.com, Yahoo Sports, Sports Illustrated and USA Today. RotoExperts.com was nominated for a total of eight industry awards in 2009, and won the Fantasy Sports Writers Association Award for Best Humor Article. RotoExperts.com urges you to look for the X- The Mark of Fantasy Excellence.

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