Fantasy Baseball Tumbling Dice: Average Is Good

by Lawr Michaels, on August 13, 2013 @ 12:50:00 PDT


As I have noted over the course of this season, my National League LABR team has been performing well, staying pretty much among the top three teams virtually all of this year.

At present I have 74 points, eight behind Doug Dennis' BaseballHQ squad, and six back of Greg Ambrosius and Shawn Childs' NFBC/STATS Inc. team.

Arizona Diemondbacks 1B Paul Goldschmidt
We'll always have 2014, Goldy

Since my well-documented team (and power-derelict team with Ryan Zimmerman and Ike Davis just not hitting big flies as I thought they would) is in third, I have an outside chance of winning thanks largely to my very strong pitching, despite the anemic sticks. Meaning I am one bat away from first place, although that is not really the point.

I can pick up a point or two in wins, saves, and strikeouts, and maybe steals with Dee Gordon back in the majors, but that is about it.

Irrespective, the bottom line is my team has indeed been in the throes of the pennant race all year without ever really showing dominance.

In fact, through the first 19 weeks of the season, this is how my LABR team has fared in the weekly standings; that is, my position within the totals for each weekly period this year:

  1. 4th
  2. 8th
  3. 4th
  4. 6th
  5. 6th
  6. 3rd
  7. 4th
  8. 6th
  9. 12th
  10. 3rd
  11. 11th
  12. 3rd
  13. 1st
  14. 4th
  15. 9th
  16. 9th
  17. 6th
  18. 10th
  19. 5th

As you can see, I have managed to have the best team in the league over only one period of the entire season (Week 13), and third four times.

However, I have had a team in the bottom third of the standings -- as in 10th or worse -- only three times at 10th, 11th, and 12th each one time.

As I have noted earlier, one small different move, like having selected Paul Goldschmidt ($27) instead of Davis ($25, and note I left $3 on the table after the draft, so I could have done this and had the rest of my roster remain the same), we would indeed be in first place.

But, the reality is that statement is really nothing more than a combination of brilliant hindsight coupled with hope gone awry.

But, there is another truth, and that is that next year, choosing a player who was already consistent, like Goldschmidt, as opposed to a popular breakout candidate, a la Davis, well, maybe we will have a first-place team when the end of the season rolls around.

You can get the Mastersball Top 250 Prospects as part of our Platinum package, with more information at 2013 Mastersball Platinum Package. Mastersball Platinum is the edge that supported four of the top five finishers in the NFBC in 2012. You can get the same insights and analysis that helped Dave Potts with the $100,000 grand prize last year by subscribing to Mastersball at 2013 Mastersball Platinum Package.

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About Lawr Michaels,

Lawr Michaels has been a player in the fantasy baseball industry since he began writing for John Benson in 1993. He has written for STATS, Inc, was the first fantasy columnist for CBS Sportsline, and has appeared in numerous journals and on websites. In 1996, he founded CREATiVESPORTS, a staple for serious fantasy players, which he merged into Mastersball in 2010.

Over the years, Lawr has participated in a wide variety of playing formats and won numerous titles, including AL Tout Wars crowns in 2001 and 2009. Along with his Mastersball duties, Lawr works for as a statistician. Fantasy Baseball

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