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Fantasy baseball player profiles: NL - First basemen

Fantasy baseball player profiles: NL - First basemen

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Quick Jump: Fantasy Baseball Player Profiles

1 Albert Pujols, 1B, St. Louis Cardinals
2 Prince Fielder, 1B, Milwaukee Brewers
3 Ryan Howard, 1B, Philadelphia Phillies
4 Joey Votto, 1B, Cincinnati Reds
5 Derrek Lee, 1B, Chicago Cubs
6 Adrian Gonzalez, 1B, San Diego Padres
7 Adam Dunn, 1B/OF, Washington Nationals
8 Lance Berkman, 1B, Houston Astros
9 Adam LaRoche, 1B, Arizona Diamondbacks
10 James Loney, 1B, Los Angeles Dodgers
11 Todd Helton, 1B, Colorado Rockies
12 Garrett Jones, 1B/OF, Pittsburgh Pirates
13 Aubrey Huff, 1B, San Francisco Giants
14 Troy Glaus, 1B, Atlanta Braves

Albert Pujols, 1B, St. Louis Cardinals
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2010 Fantasy Baseball Projections

ABRHHRRBISBBAOBPSLGOPS
57981166281004.287.355.499.854

Nit-picking: dipping line-drive and contact rates, but Albert Pujols' power explosion calms you down. Maybe steals come down, but he had reached double digits before last year. Thin argument when you're complaining about him hitting .327 instead of .357. Once-in-a-generation hitter the near consensus No. 1 overall pick.


Prince Fielder, 1B, Milwaukee Brewers
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2010 Fantasy Baseball Projections

ABRHHRRBISBBAOBPSLGOPS
60084176321081.293.384.510.894

Already elite walk, flyball, HR/FB rates exploded. Increased patience, as well. Small wrench comes in lucky BABIP with low line-drive rate. Prince Fielder's command of the strike zone means his clip won't hurt you, though. Forty homers and top-10 mixed value near certainties during his prime years.


Ryan Howard, 1B, Philadelphia Phillies
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2010 Fantasy Baseball Projections

ABRHHRRBISBBAOBPSLGOPS
4775111625750.243.305.465.770

Another drop in K rate and return to previously established standard for average on balls in play helped Ryan Howard's average. Not as encouraging are the slowly eroding walk rate and power factor. Still a relatively safe buy, but ridiculous home run and RBI totals are best-case scenario, not the norm.


Joey Votto, 1B, Cincinnati Reds
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2010 Fantasy Baseball Projections

ABRHHRRBISBBAOBPSLGOPS
5719717228907.301.420.522.942

Joey Votto has shown improvement in his isolated power in each of the last three years and is just approaching his power prime. Decent though not necessarily improving batting eye plus pleasing mix of batted-ball tendencies ensure his average will stay around .300. Other owners might be anxious, though; in single-year leagues, he isn't worth breaking your budget.


Derrek Lee, 1B, Chicago Cubs
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2010 Fantasy Baseball Projections

ABRHHRRBISBBAOBPSLGOPS
000000.000.000.000.000

Don't buy Derrek Lee's 35 homers from last year. His HR/FB spiked. No obvious signs of a skills crash, yet, but his gradually declining contact rate hints you should prepare for one. Lee's draft price will be cheaper than his '09 performance, but he comes with ample drop-off risk.


Adrian Gonzalez, 1B, San Diego Padres
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2010 Fantasy Baseball Projections

ABRHHRRBISBBAOBPSLGOPS
5687216420981.289.347.461.808

Adrian Gonzalez overcame late-season Albert Pujols treatment even when his HR/FB neutralized down the stretch. Problem here: Lack of real support means he'll probably have a full season of more trotting to first. Rebounded flyball percentage and a two-year stretch of elite HR/FB support his chance to approach 40 dingers again, and he's still a top-10 first baseman. However, he has a giant drop-off cloud hanging over him.


Adam Dunn, 1B/OF, Washington Nationals
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2010 Fantasy Baseball Projections

ABRHHRRBISBBAOBPSLGOPS
5156110832851.210.317.431.748

Power remained top-notch despite unfriendly destination. Homer and flyball rates locked into elite numbers. Improved versus lefties; keeping that up is Adam Dunn's best bet at keeping his lofty BABIP high. Then again, BABIP was high specifically against lefties, so that might be the first to go. You draft Dunn for the 40-homer talent; you won't be burned if you stick with that plan and balance him out accordingly with an average specialist.


Lance Berkman, 1B, Houston Astros
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2010 Fantasy Baseball Projections

ABRHHRRBISBBAOBPSLGOPS
000000.000.000.000.000

Back and calf injuries had big effect on Lance Berkman's playing time, and, combined with a bit of bad luck, were a drag on BA. Those skills are stable. Homer and flyball rates have been at a similar level for three years running - positive sign. He'll continue slow fade, but unpredictable BA output and health problems have always made him a better buy coming off a down year. Arthroscopic knee surgery will drop price more, but doesn't change what we already know and makes it easier for Berkman to earn a profit.


Adam LaRoche, 1B, Arizona Diamondbacks
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2010 Fantasy Baseball Projections

ABRHHRRBISBBAOBPSLGOPS
4817012018713.249.343.410.753

Yin: Consistent over the years, great in second half, new ballpark could aid power spike from lefty bat. Yang: No real upside, terrible in the first half, wrong side of 30. Adam LaRoche is striking out a bit more, but otherwise, his batting average indicators are consistent. He's relatively safe but requires patience.


James Loney, 1B, Los Angeles Dodgers
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2010 Fantasy Baseball Projections

ABRHHRRBISBBAOBPSLGOPS
5165114710662.285.337.401.738

James Loney's 2009 was almost an exact mirror of 2008 as far as stats go. Even if batting eye dips a little, general maturation should mitigate massive drop. Other plate skills suggest average remains intact. Homers continue to be MIA with few signs of appearing. The 25-year-old would probably have to sacrifice average if he wants to add more power. He's a valuable non-traditional CI that won't cost a lot. Need to find power elsewhere, though.


Todd Helton, 1B, Colorado Rockies
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2010 Fantasy Baseball Projections

ABRHHRRBISBBAOBPSLGOPS
000000.000.000.000.000

Todd Helton reclaimed some of his past stature with a solid line last year. The back problems that sapped his strength in 2008 appeared over. Still, that's about the best you can expect from him, especially since the team aims to rest him more in 2010. He still makes decent contact and could fly as a depth option in larger mixed setups.


Garrett Jones, 1B/OF, Pittsburgh Pirates
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2010 Fantasy Baseball Projections

ABRHHRRBISBBAOBPSLGOPS
4545511015633.242.297.414.711

Perennial Quad-A commodity posted elite home run rate in half-season. Flyball rate wasn't top-level, but power could be at least partially sustained when flyball rate evens out with lofty HR/FB. Hacker's BABIP was fortunate in the final two months. Garrett Jones will need to figure out left-handers before we can expect sustained success; pay for a drop-off, but you can buy late-round power before you count on anything else.


Aubrey Huff, 1B, San Francisco Giants
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2010 Fantasy Baseball Projections

ABRHHRRBISBBAOBPSLGOPS
000000.000.000.000.000

Aubrey Huff's 32-homer '08 rightfully came back down to earth. His groundballs went back up, and he didn't have Camden Yards to help him for the whole season. His drops in contact, flyball and line-drive rate, along with his new pitcher-friendly home digs, don't prove he can regain much power. He's an NL-only corner infielder at best.


Troy Glaus, 1B, Atlanta Braves
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2010 Fantasy Baseball Projections

ABRHHRRBISBBAOBPSLGOPS
000000.000.000.000.000

Injuries (oblique, shoulder) kept Troy Glaus out for most of 2009. Shoulder problem could sap already disappearing power, although offseason work has focused on strengthening that area. If 2008 was any indication, batting average may have slightly improved baseline. How much playing time can you expect? It shouldn't cost much to check it out.