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Fantasy baseball player profiles: Mixed - First basemen

Fantasy baseball player profiles: Mixed - First basemen

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Quick Jump: Fantasy Baseball Player Profiles

1 Albert Pujols, 1B, St. Louis Cardinals
2 Mark Teixeira, 1B, New York Yankees
3 Miguel Cabrera, 1B, Detroit Tigers
4 Prince Fielder, 1B, Milwaukee Brewers
5 Ryan Howard, 1B, Philadelphia Phillies
6 Kevin Youkilis, 1B/3B, Boston Red Sox
7 Justin Morneau, 1B, Minnesota Twins
8 Joey Votto, 1B, Cincinnati Reds
9 Adam Dunn, 1B/OF, Washington Nationals
10 Adrian Gonzalez, 1B, San Diego Padres
11 Kendry Morales, 1B, Los Angeles Angels of Anaheim
12 Lance Berkman, 1B, Houston Astros
13 Derrek Lee, 1B, Chicago Cubs
14 Carlos Pena, 1B, Tampa Bay Rays
15 Billy Butler, 1B, Kansas City Royals
16 Chris Davis, 1B, Texas Rangers
17 Adam LaRoche, 1B, Arizona Diamondbacks
18 Paul Konerko, 1B, Chicago White Sox
19 James Loney, 1B, Los Angeles Dodgers
20 Todd Helton, 1B, Colorado Rockies
21 Garrett Jones, 1B/OF, Pittsburgh Pirates
22 Matt LaPorta, 1B/OF, Cleveland Indians
23 Russell Branyan, 1B, Cleveland Indians
24 Aubrey Huff, 1B, San Francisco Giants
25 Nick Johnson, 1B, New York Yankees
26 Troy Glaus, 1B, Atlanta Braves
27 Garrett Atkins, 1B/3B, Baltimore Orioles
28 Lyle Overbay, 1B, Toronto Blue Jays
29 Jake Fox, 3B/OF, Oakland Athletics

Albert Pujols, 1B, St. Louis Cardinals
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2010 Fantasy Baseball Projections

ABRHHRRBISBBAOBPSLGOPS
57981166281004.287.355.499.854

Nit-picking: dipping line-drive and contact rates, but Albert Pujols' power explosion calms you down. Maybe steals come down, but he had reached double digits before last year. Thin argument when you're complaining about him hitting .327 instead of .357. Once-in-a-generation hitter the near consensus No. 1 overall pick.


Mark Teixeira, 1B, New York Yankees
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2010 Fantasy Baseball Projections

ABRHHRRBISBBAOBPSLGOPS
4285810523761.245.331.472.803

The Bronx bandbox enhanced skills already among the upper ranks, especially with Mark Teixeira's ballooned flyball rate; keeping this up will play well in his park. He once again overcame early struggles and added a few taters to his already gluttonous potato basket, all while being more aggressive at the dish. Few bats are as bank.


Miguel Cabrera, 1B, Detroit Tigers
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2010 Fantasy Baseball Projections

ABRHHRRBISBBAOBPSLGOPS
572100185391242.323.416.582.998

Miguel Cabrera's increasing grounder tendency is unnerving, and he'll be in his eighth MLB season when he turns 27 in April. We're not telling you to panic, just be aware of the trend. He's still a first-rounder - steady, elite power and skill otherwise.


Prince Fielder, 1B, Milwaukee Brewers
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2010 Fantasy Baseball Projections

ABRHHRRBISBBAOBPSLGOPS
60084176321081.293.384.510.894

Already elite walk, flyball, HR/FB rates exploded. Increased patience, as well. Small wrench comes in lucky BABIP with low line-drive rate. Prince Fielder's command of the strike zone means his clip won't hurt you, though. Forty homers and top-10 mixed value near certainties during his prime years.


Ryan Howard, 1B, Philadelphia Phillies
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2010 Fantasy Baseball Projections

ABRHHRRBISBBAOBPSLGOPS
4775111625750.243.305.465.770

Another drop in K rate and return to previously established standard for average on balls in play helped Ryan Howard's average. Not as encouraging are the slowly eroding walk rate and power factor. Still a relatively safe buy, but ridiculous home run and RBI totals are best-case scenario, not the norm.


Kevin Youkilis, 1B/3B, Boston Red Sox
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2010 Fantasy Baseball Projections

ABRHHRRBISBBAOBPSLGOPS
000000.000.000.000.000

Despite a swelling K presence, Kevin Youkilis maintained his '08 breakout while going back to his original walks mantra. His BABIP has gone up in each of the last two years, though; he isn't short on hard contact. That climbing OPS wasn't affected much by his back-injury-spawned power drop in the second half. He's a top-30 mixed player. His dual eligibility is worth reaching for.


Justin Morneau, 1B, Minnesota Twins
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2010 Fantasy Baseball Projections

ABRHHRRBISBBAOBPSLGOPS
4966713722790.276.340.472.812

First half? MVP pace. Later on in the year? Justin Morneau tried to play through a lower-back injury, which only aggravated his second-half woes. The post-break dips are becoming a pattern, but if his offseason recovery comes out clean, he should build on his climbing flies and free passes. Don't shy away.


Joey Votto, 1B, Cincinnati Reds
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2010 Fantasy Baseball Projections

ABRHHRRBISBBAOBPSLGOPS
5719717228907.301.420.522.942

Joey Votto has shown improvement in his isolated power in each of the last three years and is just approaching his power prime. Decent though not necessarily improving batting eye plus pleasing mix of batted-ball tendencies ensure his average will stay around .300. Other owners might be anxious, though; in single-year leagues, he isn't worth breaking your budget.


Adam Dunn, 1B/OF, Washington Nationals
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2010 Fantasy Baseball Projections

ABRHHRRBISBBAOBPSLGOPS
5156110832851.210.317.431.748

Power remained top-notch despite unfriendly destination. Homer and flyball rates locked into elite numbers. Improved versus lefties; keeping that up is Adam Dunn's best bet at keeping his lofty BABIP high. Then again, BABIP was high specifically against lefties, so that might be the first to go. You draft Dunn for the 40-homer talent; you won't be burned if you stick with that plan and balance him out accordingly with an average specialist.


Adrian Gonzalez, 1B, San Diego Padres
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2010 Fantasy Baseball Projections

ABRHHRRBISBBAOBPSLGOPS
5687216420981.289.347.461.808

Adrian Gonzalez overcame late-season Albert Pujols treatment even when his HR/FB neutralized down the stretch. Problem here: Lack of real support means he'll probably have a full season of more trotting to first. Rebounded flyball percentage and a two-year stretch of elite HR/FB support his chance to approach 40 dingers again, and he's still a top-10 first baseman. However, he has a giant drop-off cloud hanging over him.


Kendry Morales, 1B, Los Angeles Angels of Anaheim
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2010 Fantasy Baseball Projections

ABRHHRRBISBBAOBPSLGOPS
4805613420690.279.337.460.797

Chomping at the bit for years, Kendry Morales exploited his full-time duty; they let him face lefties. His K's spiked, but so did every meaningful offensive stat. His line-drive rate went up, but his contact doesn't look like it'll creep above the mean. While his HR/FB raises skepticism, that jump wasn't unfounded. He's a low-end starting first sacker.


Lance Berkman, 1B, Houston Astros
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2010 Fantasy Baseball Projections

ABRHHRRBISBBAOBPSLGOPS
000000.000.000.000.000

Back and calf injuries had big effect on Lance Berkman's playing time, and, combined with a bit of bad luck, were a drag on BA. Those skills are stable. Homer and flyball rates have been at a similar level for three years running - positive sign. He'll continue slow fade, but unpredictable BA output and health problems have always made him a better buy coming off a down year. Arthroscopic knee surgery will drop price more, but doesn't change what we already know and makes it easier for Berkman to earn a profit.


Derrek Lee, 1B, Chicago Cubs
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2010 Fantasy Baseball Projections

ABRHHRRBISBBAOBPSLGOPS
000000.000.000.000.000

Don't buy Derrek Lee's 35 homers from last year. His HR/FB spiked. No obvious signs of a skills crash, yet, but his gradually declining contact rate hints you should prepare for one. Lee's draft price will be cheaper than his '09 performance, but he comes with ample drop-off risk.


Carlos Pena, 1B, Tampa Bay Rays
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2010 Fantasy Baseball Projections

ABRHHRRBISBBAOBPSLGOPS
741015270.203.330.324.654

Carlos Pena missed 25 games to end the year and STILL won the AL homer crown; he should be ready for Spring Training after breaking two fingers. He walks a ton but rarely puts the ball on the ground or on a laser, making his slumps grotesque. That being said, his middle-round power is nearly unmatched if you can compensate elsewhere.


Billy Butler, 1B, Kansas City Royals
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2010 Fantasy Baseball Projections

ABRHHRRBISBBAOBPSLGOPS
5936917318871.292.368.435.803

Billy Butler's extra-base knack not a question. Career-best flyball percentage and improvements against righties support blossoming batting average. Clip improvement might be held back with likely-normalizing BABIP. As his fame grows, his draft stock will follow, which may sap some profit opportunity. A sound investment as a midrange mixed starter anyway.


Chris Davis, 1B, Texas Rangers
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2010 Fantasy Baseball Projections

ABRHHRRBISBBAOBPSLGOPS
54979147381012.268.350.545.895

Chris Davis' ample whiffs weren't surprising. Positives? The contact improvements he made after he came up from the minors. Make him a middle-range first baseman for his power and hope everything else comes around. He hits enough line drives to give drafters some faith in a slight batting average rebound. Eligible at third base in many formats.


Adam LaRoche, 1B, Arizona Diamondbacks
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2010 Fantasy Baseball Projections

ABRHHRRBISBBAOBPSLGOPS
4817012018713.249.343.410.753

Yin: Consistent over the years, great in second half, new ballpark could aid power spike from lefty bat. Yang: No real upside, terrible in the first half, wrong side of 30. Adam LaRoche is striking out a bit more, but otherwise, his batting average indicators are consistent. He's relatively safe but requires patience.


Paul Konerko, 1B, Chicago White Sox
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2010 Fantasy Baseball Projections

ABRHHRRBISBBAOBPSLGOPS
23523648290.272.344.413.757

The BABIP and power rebounded last year, even if Paul Konerko walked less. In his 14th season, he's baseball old, but Konerko is only 33. You should draft him expecting his '09 line to be a foundation. Anything else is gravy for this stable deep-mixed CI that could be grabbed at a discount.


James Loney, 1B, Los Angeles Dodgers
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2010 Fantasy Baseball Projections

ABRHHRRBISBBAOBPSLGOPS
5165114710662.285.337.401.738

James Loney's 2009 was almost an exact mirror of 2008 as far as stats go. Even if batting eye dips a little, general maturation should mitigate massive drop. Other plate skills suggest average remains intact. Homers continue to be MIA with few signs of appearing. The 25-year-old would probably have to sacrifice average if he wants to add more power. He's a valuable non-traditional CI that won't cost a lot. Need to find power elsewhere, though.


Todd Helton, 1B, Colorado Rockies
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2010 Fantasy Baseball Projections

ABRHHRRBISBBAOBPSLGOPS
000000.000.000.000.000

Todd Helton reclaimed some of his past stature with a solid line last year. The back problems that sapped his strength in 2008 appeared over. Still, that's about the best you can expect from him, especially since the team aims to rest him more in 2010. He still makes decent contact and could fly as a depth option in larger mixed setups.


Garrett Jones, 1B/OF, Pittsburgh Pirates
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2010 Fantasy Baseball Projections

ABRHHRRBISBBAOBPSLGOPS
4545511015633.242.297.414.711

Perennial Quad-A commodity posted elite home run rate in half-season. Flyball rate wasn't top-level, but power could be at least partially sustained when flyball rate evens out with lofty HR/FB. Hacker's BABIP was fortunate in the final two months. Garrett Jones will need to figure out left-handers before we can expect sustained success; pay for a drop-off, but you can buy late-round power before you count on anything else.


Matt LaPorta, 1B/OF, Cleveland Indians
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2010 Fantasy Baseball Projections

ABRHHRRBISBBAOBPSLGOPS
000000.000.000.000.000

Toe and hip surgeries cloud Matt LaPorta's Opening Day status, but timetable isn't bleak. Reports credit his expanded use of all fields late last year, but he'll probably have growing pains in his batting eye. LaPorta's contact rate isn't terrible for a hacker, though. Will probably start in left field but will also see time at first base, in all likelihood. Draft the power and consider everything else a bonus; he's an end-gamer in deep mixed.


Russell Branyan, 1B, Cleveland Indians
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2010 Fantasy Baseball Projections

ABRHHRRBISBBAOBPSLGOPS
000000.000.000.000.000

Russell Branyan is lined up for full-time duty in Cleveland. Visual exercises improved hand-eye coordination, which probably aided in sustaining power. Batting eye is still terrible. His BA eventually slipped along with his health. Can he hold up for a full season? Increased exposure to lefties gives hope for growth, but how much can the 34-year-old former platoon player add to his skill set? Bid cautiously for the bench power in deep leagues.


Aubrey Huff, 1B, San Francisco Giants
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2010 Fantasy Baseball Projections

ABRHHRRBISBBAOBPSLGOPS
000000.000.000.000.000

Aubrey Huff's 32-homer '08 rightfully came back down to earth. His groundballs went back up, and he didn't have Camden Yards to help him for the whole season. His drops in contact, flyball and line-drive rate, along with his new pitcher-friendly home digs, don't prove he can regain much power. He's an NL-only corner infielder at best.


Nick Johnson, 1B, New York Yankees
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2010 Fantasy Baseball Projections

ABRHHRRBISBBAOBPSLGOPS
000000.000.000.000.000

The Stick, with prime line-drive and walk rates, ranks as one of the best on-base threats in the bigs. Nick Johnson second trip in the Bronx has a grander offensive feel. Anything close to a full season as the No. 2 in this lineup spells CI value in everything but dingers. Banking on his health, however, still carries risks.


Troy Glaus, 1B, Atlanta Braves
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2010 Fantasy Baseball Projections

ABRHHRRBISBBAOBPSLGOPS
000000.000.000.000.000

Injuries (oblique, shoulder) kept Troy Glaus out for most of 2009. Shoulder problem could sap already disappearing power, although offseason work has focused on strengthening that area. If 2008 was any indication, batting average may have slightly improved baseline. How much playing time can you expect? It shouldn't cost much to check it out.


Garrett Atkins, 1B/3B, Baltimore Orioles
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2010 Fantasy Baseball Projections

ABRHHRRBISBBAOBPSLGOPS
000000.000.000.000.000

Garrett Atkins' formerly gradual decline became ano crash in '09. The 30-year-old's dropping BABIP, line-drive rate and homers-per-flyball percentage are hard evidence; he can still take a walk, for what it's worth. The O's will give him a chance to rebound, but they're waiting on youngsters Josh Bell and Brandon Snyder, so Atkins' leash will probably be short.


Lyle Overbay, 1B, Toronto Blue Jays
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2010 Fantasy Baseball Projections

ABRHHRRBISBBAOBPSLGOPS
24919617281.245.298.394.692

A roto placeholder, Lyle Overbay has seen his batting eye trend upward in the last four years. Makes hard contact but doesn't provide much lift; his batting average won't reach '06 levels without some luck. Ride his streaks as a pickup during a deep mixed season; he'll set you back as a power-desperate first baseman in ALs.


Jake Fox, 3B/OF, Oakland Athletics
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2010 Fantasy Baseball Projections

ABRHHRRBISBBAOBPSLGOPS
000000.000.000.000.000

This power threat doesn't have a starting spot right now in a crowded outfielder/DH/corner infield picture. Jake Fox's pure pop would be an immediate addition to the everyday slate if injury or slacking performance opens up a spot; GM Billy Beane doesn't shy away from trading from surplus, either. Fox's versatility makes him a premium AL-only bench target and a deep mixed post-draft watch candidate.